Cumhuriyet newspaper in Turkey recently warned: “Are you aware of the danger? Clocks will be turned back 100 years on May 16.” The opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) is threatening to boycott Parliament and the secularists and the other so-called guardians of Atatürk’s legacy are endeavoring to drive a wave of panic through the nation. The forthcoming Turkish presidential election is proving to be one of the most controversial in the history of the Republic.
Wisely or not, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan continues to keep the nation guessing as to whether he will declare himself a candidate. Though Erdoğan is still a young man and has a lot of political talent left to give, he may believe that if he does not take this opportunity he will never have another chance. At the same time he must be conscious that he will upset a lot of people. The recent protests in Ankara are a clear signal of the strong feelings of some. He must weigh up to what extent the upset will rattle the stability of Turkey and its economy. If he wants it, his parliamentary majority will almost certainly ensure success. However opponents and senior military figures continue to fight tooth and nail to keep him from Atatürk’s throne. Their relentless verbal attacks and scaremongering are in fact increasing the likelihood that Erdoğan will find he has no alternative but to run. It will be a matter of pride and prestige.
Many claim that Erdoğan in Çankaya will be a threat to Turkey’s secular foundations, but this is a questionable argument given that if Erdoğan were to attempt anything sinister, the opposition could bring it to the Constitutional Court, the head of which is in place for at least another couple of years. Furthermore, particularly in the short and medium term, Erdoğan will not want to lose the Justice and Development Party’s (AK Party) liberal voters, so he is unlikely to try to amend legislation. Erdoğan’s every move will be scrutinized by the nation. It will be the people that will protect Turkey’s secular status and not the military. There will be no military coup, Gen. Yaşar Büyükanıt has already stated as much. He may not like it but he will accept it. Turkey is not the same country it was 10 or 20 years ago. Turks have loud voices and if they are unhappy they will sing it from the rooftops. An Erdoğan presidency will not make Turkey the next Iran.
Whether the AK Party can survive without Erdoğan at the helm is another question. He is a charismatic leader who has managed to hold together a party that is fragmenting. Whether or not Foreign Minister Abdullah Gül would be able to do so is questionable. The first hurdle will be to win the general elections and avoid a grid-locked coalition government coming to power. It would therefore not be surprising if the date were shifted forward to either just before or after the summer. Turkey also desperately needs a much stronger and effective opposition. Not the shambles that exits today.
Of course Erdoğan may surprise everybody and at the last minute announce a “rookie” candidate. Somebody totally unexpected and less controversial, such as a woman. Somebody nobody could object to.
In Brussels bureaucrats are intrigued as to the outcome. Most important for the EU is stability in the country, a strong government with whom they can work constructively and ensuring that the elections are carried out in a democratic fashion. There are no strong feelings here as to whether or not Erdoğan should run, but some feel that dealing with Gül as prime minister could be easier given Erdoğan’s tendency to act on his emotions.
The countdown has begun. We must all wait and see.
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